Why California Citrus Is Leading the U.S. Market — and Leaving Florida and Texas Behind

U.S. citrus production has undergone a dramatic geographic shift over the past two decades, with California emerging as the dominant region for high-value fresh fruit. Once the stronghold of Florida and Texas, citrus production is now concentrated in California, which accounted for approximately 79% of total U.S. citrus output in the 2023–24 season^[1]. Importantly, the vast majority of this fruit is consumed domestically, helping anchor prices and reduce exposure to export volatility.

For investors seeking long-term exposure to citrus through agricultural assets, this transition reflects not only a regional realignment, but also a structural repricing of risk, quality, and resilience in U.S. citrus markets.

A Declining East: Florida and Texas Under Strain

Florida, once the undisputed leader and dominant producer in U.S. citrus, has experienced a dramatic contraction in production—driven primarily by biological and climatic shocks. Since the early 2000s, total output has fallen by over 90%^[2], with annual production declining from 242 million boxes in the 2003–2004 season to just 15.8 million boxes by 2023–2024–the lowest level in modern history. The most significant factor has been citrus greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), a bacterial disease transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid^[3]. First detected in Florida in 2005, HLB has led to widespread tree mortality, reduced yields, and declining fruit quality.

Compounding this biological pressure, major weather events such as Hurricane Ian in 2022 damaged up to 60% of some groves, delaying recovery even further. Grower reinvestment has lagged the pace of losses; industry data show that while Florida loses approximately 3.5% of citrus trees annually, only about 2% are replanted—resulting in net acreage attrition even before factoring in disease- and storm-related damage. The long-term viability of citrus in Florida remains uncertain, especially given the lack of commercially scalable solutions for HLB.

Texas, while a smaller citrus-producing state, has historically focused on bulk processing markets—particularly Rio Red grapefruit and Valencia oranges for juice—rather than high-margin fresh-market varieties. This orientation is longstanding: in peak years, nearly half of Texas grapefruit production has gone to processing, compared to fresh-market routes—highlighting the state’s orientation toward bulk processing. In the 2023–24 season, Texas grapefruit yields averaged approximately 296 boxes per acre, with an on-tree price of $25.36 per box—resulting in roughly $7,500 in gross revenue per acre^[4]. Oranges—more fresh-oriented—yielded approximately 185 boxes per acre at an average price of $11.30 per box, or around $2,100 per acre in gross revenue.

In contrast, California’s fresh-oriented mandarin operations consistently deliver higher value: 252 boxes per acre at roughly $35 per box, or approximately $8,800 per acre in on-tree crop value. Many premium growers report gross returns of $15,000 to $16,000 per acre^[5]. This reflects a roughly 3x to 5x premium compared to processing-driven citrus in Texas and underscores the economic disparity between bulk juice production and fresh-market specialization.

While Texas does produce some fresh-market citrus—primarily early-season grapefruit sold regionally—it lacks the infrastructure, varietal mix, and market access required to compete in national or export-oriented fresh citrus markets^[6]. In 2021, a severe winter freeze dealt a heavy blow–Texas growers lost approximately 60% of the grapefruit crop. Many groves suffered permanent losses, and recovery has been slow. Since then, citrus greening (HLB) has also been detected in the region, putting further pressure on tree health and future output. These combined challenges have narrowed Texas’s role in the broader citrus market, especially when compared to California’s dominance in high-quality, nationally distributed fresh fruit.

California’s Citrus Ascent

California is now the undisputed leader in the U.S. fresh citrus market, accounting for 79% of all fresh citrus production as of 2024^[7]. This dominance is especially pronounced in the tangerine and mandarin category, where the state represented roughly 98% of the value of U.S. production. Key varietals such as Tango, Murcott, and Golden Nugget have seen rapid acreage expansion over the past two decades, driven by consumer preference for seedless, easy-to-peel fruit with a consistently sweet flavor profile.

Strategic Crop Orientation

California’s leadership is not solely a function of volume—it is a result of strategic product orientation. Historically, Florida’s citrus industry has been oriented toward juice and bulk processing, while Texas has focused more on fresh-market grapefruit, contrasted with California’s emphasis on high-margin fresh fruit such as mandarins, navels, and specialty citrus varieties export appeal.

Growth in Mandarin Acreage

Since the early 2000s, California mandarin acreage has grown significantly — more than doubling to over 67,000 acres by the 2022–23 season. Many orchards now use proprietary varieties designed for staggered harvest windows, enhancing shelf life and ensuring near year‑round market availability—a key advantage for both retail and export buyers.

Strong Per-Acre Economics

Economically, mandarins offer significantly higher returns per acre than traditional citrus. Well-managed orchards typically generate gross revenue in the range of $8,000 to $12,000 per acre annually, based on conservative UC Davis Cooperative Extension budget models (archived study, last updated 2011)^[8]. In premium regions with strong yields and export-grade packout, growers have reported gross returns of $15,000 to $16,000 per acre (based on historical grower-reported data). These economics are supported by strong domestic consumption and export demand, [particularly in Asia], where California citrus enjoys reliable port access and phytosanitary infrastructure.

Strong Domestic Demand

Roughly two-thirds of U.S. mandarin consumption is supplied by domestic growers, with the remainder filled by seasonal imports. While export markets—particularly in Asia—add pricing upside, the core valuation of California citrus remains anchored in robust domestic demand. This high internal reliance—combined with consistent domestic retail demand—creates insulation from trade disruptions and tariff risk, setting mandarins apart from more export‑dependent crops like almonds or pistachios. For investors, this structural demand base underpins pricing resilience and long-term asset stability—even as international markets add further growth potential.

Operational Sophistication

California’s citrus operations often reflect a higher degree of technological and managerial advancement relative to other regions. Many growers have adopted practices such as precision irrigation, pest modeling, and digital logistics tools to improve efficiency and crop quality. In some cases, groves are professionally managed under long-term agreements with vertically integrated marketers, contributing to more consistent outcomes in quality, pricing, and delivery.

Ideal Climate Conditions

California’s citrus dominance is also rooted in its uniquely favorable climate. The state’s Mediterranean conditions—characterized by warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters—are ideal for citrus trees, supporting both fruit development and tree health. These conditions reduce the prevalence of fungal and bacterial diseases, allow for more predictable harvest timing, and promote high sugar content and color development in fruit.

Unlike Florida and Texas, where high humidity and extreme weather introduce operational volatility, California’s inland citrus regions (such as Tulare, Fresno, and Kern Counties) offer a relatively stable and scalable environment for long-term citrus production. This climatic advantage underpins the state’s ability to produce consistent, high-quality fruit year after year.

Structural Foundations for Long-Term Citrus Viability

California’s citrus market leadership is not just a product of favorable demand trends—it’s underpinned by several enduring structural advantages that position the state for long-term success in premium citrus production.

1. Climate-Limited Disease Pressure

California’s dry Mediterranean climate remains one of the most powerful defenses against systemic citrus diseases. While Huanglongbing (HLB) has been detected in residential trees in Southern California since 2012, its spread has remained geographically constrained—unlike in Florida, where the disease has become endemic. Lower humidity and cooler winter nights reduce the survival and mobility of the Asian citrus psyllid, the insect responsible for transmitting HLB.

Importantly, over a decade after the initial detection of HLB in California, the state has not experienced widespread commercial losses. This relative containment is the result of both environmental conditions and aggressive state-level disease mitigation programs—including mandatory tree removal in infected zones, insect quarantines, and early-detection surveillance. When an infected tree is found, California regulators immediately implement quarantine zones—often encompassing a radius of several miles—to prevent disease spread and limit psyllid migration.

While no region in the world is entirely immune to biological risk, the available evidence suggests that California’s citrus belt remains structurally protected from the type of disease-driven collapse experienced in Florida. For investors, this combination of climatic and regulatory defenses represents a key risk-mitigation feature that supports long-term asset viability.

2. Controlled Irrigation and Water Resilience

Despite persistent drought concerns, many California citrus operations are supported by highly engineered irrigation systems, including micro-drip and deficit irrigation technologies that improve water-use efficiency. Properties located in areas served by stable water districts or groundwater banking programs—such as Kern, Tulare, and Fresno Counties—offer long-term resilience through secure and managed water access.

3. Export-Oriented Infrastructure

While the majority of California citrus is sold domestically, the state’s robust export infrastructure—including proximity to major West Coast ports in Los Angeles, Oakland, and Long Beach—enables consistent access to high-value international markets. In the 2022–2023 season, approximately 30% of California’s citrus production was exported; this global access supports premium pricing for export-grade fruit and adds resilience through diversified market channels.

4. Diversification Across Varietals and Harvest Windows

California growers have adopted a portfolio approach to citrus cultivation, with groves often containing multiple mandarin and orange varietals that allow for harvests from November through May. This diversification mitigates market and weather risk, while supporting consistent packhouse throughput and labor deployment.

5. Professionalized Management and Technology Adoption

A large share of California’s citrus acreage is managed by sophisticated operators employing precision agriculture, aerial imaging, real-time yield tracking, and vertically integrated marketing. These practices enable consistent quality control, efficient input use, and better margin capture across the supply chain.

Implications for Investors

For investors evaluating opportunities in agricultural real assets, the regional divergence in U.S. citrus production carries meaningful implications for both return potential and portfolio construction.

• Durability of Returns: California citrus, particularly mandarins, offers some of the strongest revenue potential in specialty crops, supported by premium pricing, long harvest windows, and export demand. Well-managed orchards consistently outperform traditional row crops on a per-acre basis.
• Structural Resilience: Unlike regions facing endemic disease and climatic volatility, California properties benefit from disease-limiting conditions, advanced water infrastructure, and proximity to international ports—factors that support long-term yield stability and asset durability.
• Strategic Diversification: For investors seeking to diversify beyond row crops, permanent crops like citrus represent a specialized asset class with distinct biological, seasonal, and demand-driven characteristics. Their countercyclical harvests, strong export alignment, and rising consumer demand create differentiated exposure within an agricultural portfolio.

The Long-Term View

The citrus industry’s center has shifted—and for good reason. California’s blend of climate, infrastructure, management, and market access offers a compelling long-term foundation for premium citrus production. While Florida and Texas struggle with disease and climatic disruptions, California continues to scale its edge in mandarins and other fresh-market varieties. For investors seeking durable yield, market alignment, and portfolio diversification, the state’s citrus sector stands out as a bright spot in U.S. agriculture.